Yesterday I had the opportunity to attend the Antelope Valley Republican Assembly monthly meeting. As would be expected, participants of the meeting were charged up over Scott Brown's "come from behind" victory in Massachusetts. Interestingly, my read on the group, was that they are cautiously hopeful that this may mean a course change for American politics. Republican leadership, and representatives gave their take on the situation and what it meant for the future. However, I believe that they, like the Obama administration, have missed the real message that was sent by the voter.
In 2008, Barak Obama was elected the first black President in the United States, a momentous occasion to say the least. Obama was elected by a majority of American voters. Not black voters. Not Democrats. Not Hispanics. Not Independents. A majority of American voters.
The "new" American voter is a different animal than the voter of 20 years ago. While many voters remain apathetic and ignorant of the issues, there is rise of unaffiliated voters from Gen-X and Millinials. The percentage of voters who claim to be independent has been on the increase since 1952, rising from 22% of voters, to an estimated 40%. This number in all likelihood will continue to climb.
So what does that mean about unaffiliated voters? Independents do not vote party lines. They vote issues and candidates on an individual basis. But what of Republicans and Democrats. In the last political campaign, and estimated 28% of Clinton supporters voted for Republican John McCain. An estimated 9% of Republican voters voted for Barak Obama. In Massachusetts, 35% of the voters are Democrat, 50% are Independent and approximately 15% are Republican. The math here is even easier.
Did these voters abandon their parties? The answer is no. I believe that there are two key factors at work here.
1. Voters make decisions based on issues and candidates as opposed to party affiliation. Voters are becoming more savvy about the political process and are choosing to support those issues and candidates that most closely align with their personal value system, regardless of party affiliation.
2. When a candidate or party is perceived to be out of touch, there will be voter backlash. Barak Obama did not win the election in 2008, as much as the Republicans lost the election for being out of touch with the public. In New Jersey, Virgina and Massachusetts, the voter is reacting to the political climate in Washington DC. These victories should not be incorrectly interpreted as mandates against the Obama Administration. Instead a proper interpretation would be the voter sending a clear message about the voter's priorities.
The conclusions and lessons that can and should be drawn is that political affiliation matters little in the current political and economic climate. Efforts to register "republicans" or "democrats" and party counts, are no longer good indicators of success in a political race. Successful campaigns will be those campaigns that clearly communicate a message that is on track with the voter's core values and top priorities. Parties that focus on winning the "hearts" and "minds" with a clear platform of responsibility will walk away with victory. Those that continue to make "numbers" the key to winning the election, will be scratching their heads in mid-November.
Tuesday, January 26, 2010
Monday, December 28, 2009
California Politics: A Whole New Attitude
California is a awash with political double-speak, special interest opportunism, and outright fraud. No longer can the public rely on key elected officials to provide truthful insight into legislation, but we neither can we count on media outlets to accurately deliver information to the taxpayer/voter. Self and otherwise designated watch-dog groups have fallen victim to political posturing as they have become part of the various propaganda machines, disseminating only that information which furthers their own political agenda or personal cause. Objective evaluation and assessment has been replaced with subjectivity and transmitted broadly as fact.
With few, if any, reliable sources of information, it has become impossible for the California voter to step into the booth and cast an educated vote. Voters are simply relegated to supporting those positions they have a "gut feeling" for. This standard of voter ignorance creates the perfect environment for the special interests and political action committees in California, as they weave their tales in an effort to conjure votes. With each passing year, voter apathy surges and control is further relinquished to the self-interested.
This year, election cycle 2010, a small group of concerned Californians will embark on a great mission of educating the California public, bringing truth and fact into the world of politics. A daunting task to say the least, but one that is of the greatest importance, as Californians grapple with monumental issues and challenges in the coming decade. Through our education, experience, knowledge and political observation, we will provide access to the average California voter, into the world of political dealings. Our goal and mission is to demystify California politics in such a way, that any Californian can know, unequivocally, the impact a "yea" or "nay" vote will have on the future of Californians.
On occasion I, as have my colleagues in this undertaking, been asked to provide clarity into the initiative process, specific propositions, and positions of elected leadership. We have successfully educated small groups within our distinct communities, helping to create communities of informed California voters. We believe that the current political environment, the failure of California political leadership, across the board, and the continuing growth of voter apathy, have resulted in the perfect arena for our efforts.
In the coming weeks and months, you can expect there to be exponential growth in the information contained and presented through this blog. It is our hope that the blog will quickly transform into a website and trusted information resource center for the California voter. As this is currently a self-funded project, we expect that the goal of a resource center will take some time to achieve. But until that time, we will do our level best to provide our readers with clear insight into the twisted and unfortunate universe known as California politics.
With few, if any, reliable sources of information, it has become impossible for the California voter to step into the booth and cast an educated vote. Voters are simply relegated to supporting those positions they have a "gut feeling" for. This standard of voter ignorance creates the perfect environment for the special interests and political action committees in California, as they weave their tales in an effort to conjure votes. With each passing year, voter apathy surges and control is further relinquished to the self-interested.
This year, election cycle 2010, a small group of concerned Californians will embark on a great mission of educating the California public, bringing truth and fact into the world of politics. A daunting task to say the least, but one that is of the greatest importance, as Californians grapple with monumental issues and challenges in the coming decade. Through our education, experience, knowledge and political observation, we will provide access to the average California voter, into the world of political dealings. Our goal and mission is to demystify California politics in such a way, that any Californian can know, unequivocally, the impact a "yea" or "nay" vote will have on the future of Californians.
On occasion I, as have my colleagues in this undertaking, been asked to provide clarity into the initiative process, specific propositions, and positions of elected leadership. We have successfully educated small groups within our distinct communities, helping to create communities of informed California voters. We believe that the current political environment, the failure of California political leadership, across the board, and the continuing growth of voter apathy, have resulted in the perfect arena for our efforts.
In the coming weeks and months, you can expect there to be exponential growth in the information contained and presented through this blog. It is our hope that the blog will quickly transform into a website and trusted information resource center for the California voter. As this is currently a self-funded project, we expect that the goal of a resource center will take some time to achieve. But until that time, we will do our level best to provide our readers with clear insight into the twisted and unfortunate universe known as California politics.
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