America's New Voter

Yesterday I had the opportunity to attend the Antelope Valley Republican Assembly monthly meeting. As would be expected, participants of the meeting were charged up over Scott Brown's "come from behind" victory in Massachusetts. Interestingly, my read on the group, was that they are cautiously hopeful that this may mean a course change for American politics. Republican leadership, and representatives gave their take on the situation and what it meant for the future. However, I believe that they, like the Obama administration, have missed the real message that was sent by the voter.

In 2008, Barak Obama was elected the first black President in the United States, a momentous occasion to say the least. Obama was elected by a majority of American voters. Not black voters. Not Democrats. Not Hispanics. Not Independents. A majority of American voters.

The "new" American voter is a different animal than the voter of 20 years ago. While many voters remain apathetic and ignorant of the issues, there is rise of unaffiliated voters from Gen-X and Millinials. The percentage of voters who claim to be independent has been on the increase since 1952, rising from 22% of voters, to an estimated 40%. This number in all likelihood will continue to climb.

So what does that mean about unaffiliated voters? Independents do not vote party lines. They vote issues and candidates on an individual basis. But what of Republicans and Democrats. In the last political campaign, and estimated 28% of Clinton supporters voted for Republican John McCain. An estimated 9% of Republican voters voted for Barak Obama. In Massachusetts, 35% of the voters are Democrat, 50% are Independent and approximately 15% are Republican. The math here is even easier.

Did these voters abandon their parties? The answer is no. I believe that there are two key factors at work here.

1. Voters make decisions based on issues and candidates as opposed to party affiliation. Voters are becoming more savvy about the political process and are choosing to support those issues and candidates that most closely align with their personal value system, regardless of party affiliation.

2. When a candidate or party is perceived to be out of touch, there will be voter backlash. Barak Obama did not win the election in 2008, as much as the Republicans lost the election for being out of touch with the public. In New Jersey, Virgina and Massachusetts, the voter is reacting to the political climate in Washington DC. These victories should not be incorrectly interpreted as mandates against the Obama Administration. Instead a proper interpretation would be the voter sending a clear message about the voter's priorities.

The conclusions and lessons that can and should be drawn is that political affiliation matters little in the current political and economic climate. Efforts to register "republicans" or "democrats" and party counts, are no longer good indicators of success in a political race. Successful campaigns will be those campaigns that clearly communicate a message that is on track with the voter's core values and top priorities. Parties that focus on winning the "hearts" and "minds" with a clear platform of responsibility will walk away with victory. Those that continue to make "numbers" the key to winning the election, will be scratching their heads in mid-November.